Seeking a War Horse in a battle for Gold by bobilo on Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 1:46:21 AM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Equinics 2012 - The FRANKFURT-NIEDERRAD turf mile for 3yo fillies --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All Frankfurt „is divided into three Parts, one of which is called“ Hibbdebach(=the other side ot the river), Dribbdebach(=this side of the river, the southern districts Sachsenhausen and Niederrad where the racetrack is now) another, the Rhein-Main-Airport „is the third. All those differ from each other in language, customs and laws. The river“ Main separates them.
And the same is partly true for the City-Race Rhein-Main Turf Club, whose three trainers platero, joe333 and jayjay named this race after their local race-track, where they like to hang out on racedays.
On a bibliographical note: the introducing passage and its quotes is stylistically borrowed by Caesar's „Gallic War“.
Frankfurt is famous for a few things: its unique skyline in Germany, though people coming in from LA, NYC or Chicago have a good laugh at it, its Cider a la Frankfurt served in pitcher and rhomb glass, the poet Goethe and his favorite dish called „Grie Soss“ (a dressing containing of seven different herbals depending on season, „Grie“ equals green in the local dialect), the book fair and a few more things not worth to be mentioned here...
(be aware: do not try to use the words hibbdebach or dribbdebach outside of Frankfurt am Main, I bet you would not be understood)
The history of horse racing in Frankfurt has a long tradition but unfortunately in the last two or three years the managing organizations went bankrupt two times. So those guys at City-Race are happy about every race-day which finally takes place.
The location is easily reached, you can go there by tram #15 from central station or bus 61 from the airport. The tram and bus stop is in front of the entrance. From the grandstand you have a nice view over the track, the inside 9-hole golf course, the nearby city forest, the skyline in the background with airplanes crossing the scenery approaching for landing at the airport.
A few years ago the heavily used sim-sire Wiesenpfad won one of the graded stakes here for a member of the sim-community.
One of my favorite races is a Group 3 in spring for 3yo. Sometimes the winner is 2 months later the favorite in the German Derby and Kamsin was the last winner of that G3 to go on and win the Derby.
Unfortunately there is no G1 race here, despite Frankfurt's role as the financial capital of continental Europe. You would expect more sponsoring from all those banks headquartered here.
But there were several G1 winners trained at this track like Anzillero, a grandson of Allegretta, and Noble Pearl, herself the dam of the mare Noble Stella, Noble Stella won several graded races in America.
Btw I like horses with a Pearl in their name; I also like Blue, Mountain, Paris, Sim and poetical references or allusions in a horse name.
But none of the fillies in the FRANKFURT-NIEDERRAD equinics race ticks any of this boxes.
Now it's about time to get off to Berkshire and the artificial animals or pixel ponies or however you name them.
Looking at the field of only 15 runners the first thing to recognize is that Yoss and the Kentucky Horsemen do not have an entry. Furthermore taffy from Midas prefers an ordinary stakes for her filly REST ASSURED, who is a no-show in this event.
The odds:
two joined favorites: at 5/1 MISS TIMOSHENKO(CAN) and STREET PRINCESS(KY)
single digit: GLOBAL FREQUENCY(KY) and QUEEN OF GOTHAM(JPN) at 7/1, STASH YOUR GOLD(AUS) at 8/1 and MAURITANIA(KY) at 9/1
outside odds: DREAM T(ENG) at 89/1 and EXTERNAL NOISE(KY) at 25/1
all others ranging close together from 12/1 for PASSED ZA(NZ) to 18/1 for YASS(KY)
The turf classic rankings:
the two best ranked fillies are showing up in MISS TIMOSHENKO(CAN) being number one and STREET PRINCESS(KY) number two
two more are in the top twenty GLOBAL FREQUENCY(KY) number eleven and QUEEN OF GOTHAM(JPN) number fifteen
That was probably one of the reasons for the bookies to offer the lowest odds on those four horses.
The sires:
two sires are represented with two entries, Street Cry with GLOBAL FREQUENCY(KY) and STREET PRINCESS(KY), and Henrythenavigator with LIFE IS GOOD TODAY(KY) and MAURITANIA(KY).
The dam-sires:
Giant's Causeway is the dam-sire of three runners GLOBAL FREQUENCY(KY), the Zabeel filly PASSED ZA(NZ) and MAURITANIA(KY), that's 20%!
A.P. Indy is the only other dam-sire with more than one runner WINNING DUH(CAN) by Wilko and QUEEN OF GOTHAM(JPN) by Empire Maker.
A.P. Indy's sire Seattle Slew is the dam-sire of STREET PRINCESS(KY).
The Seattle Slew/A.P. Indy sire-line is furthermore represented by A.P. Indy's son Dance with Ravens as the dam-sire of BLACK BIRD TB(KY) by US Ranger and A.P. Indy's grandson Tapit as the dam-sire of LIFE IS GOOD TODAY(KY).
The field in post position order:
LIFE IS GOOD TODAY(KY) trained by zman2 in the Minnesota Downs residency.
You have to love this filly not only because the positive name. She is on a winning streak trying for the fifth in a row, the last two were stakes wins. She never raced in a turf mile, but has won going 8.5 furlong with a speed figure of 97 in her last race and 7.5 furlong before. Needs just to step up a bit in this company and can be a big surprise at the generous odds of 17/1. In fact if you throw out her first two attempts on dirt and the one start 5 races back on good turf where she was just a bit late finishing second one length behind the winner, she is a perfect 6 for 6 on firm turf. My only concern is her 6% jockey in this company.
WINNING DUH(CAN) managed by redhill15 from the Comedy Central.
Another one with an appealing name and some betting value at 15/1. Showed her best speed figure in her last race with a 103 in allowance company over 9 furlong where she finished second place. Step back to 8 furlong might be of additional help. Won 2 of her last three starts both on off track. Only problem she has never faced better than allowance class. The kind of horse I am angry about myself if she wins and I do not have a few bucks on her just because of her name.
BLACK BIRD TB(KY) TESTBARN Residency boss testbarn10 himself prepares this winner of a quarter of a million. After her winless first three starts as 2yo on dirt, trainer changed to the other surface and was rewarded with four in row culminating in a stakes win over today's distance. Won three more over a mile. Her turf record reads quite well with seven wins, one 2nd and 2 3rd in 13 starts. Needs a bit improvement speed figure wise, her best was 96. But she earned money in every single start on turf. Now, if she were a Blue Bird...
ELITE ROCK(IRE) NWRC selected eliteracng's the 1000-Guineas third to represent them.
If she is able to repeat her performance that day and takes another step forward, this girl can rock! She is a stakes winner, and won 6 of her 13 starts. Probably the one who sets the early pace. Lives very close to her name.
GLOBAL FREQUENCY(KY) super12 trained DelPenn entry piloted by German champion jockey T. Small. Won the French 1000 Guineas with a speed figure of 103 on yielding ground followed by a second place finish in a G2 with the same speed both races were over todays distance. Disappointed in her last race over 8.5 furlong fading into sixth place. Might come back today to her best. My only question is why the super's did not manage to get an off track? Leave out at your own peril.
STASH YOUR GOLD(AUS) skunkbred3 BLAZZING SADDLES
That would be a fitting name for an equinics gold medal winner, right? Wins 50% of her races, graded winner over a mile already. Triple digit speed figures in her last two starts, won three of her last four. Finished never worse than 4th. Must include, big chance.
MISS TIMOSHENKO(CAN) manoroflad GR Simsters
Race co-favorite, number one in the ranking, Champion 2yo filly on turf and an eclipse award for Horse of the year in 2011, G1 winner against the boys at age 2, 1000 Guineas winner, earned already more than 3 million dollars, a living legend! Must have a say, be there.
EXTERNAL NOISE(KY) joe999 City-Race Rhein-Main Turf Club
By Lemon Drop Kid based on the He-mare Noshow. This lightly raced filly was a replacement in the City-Race team for our alternative runner, so she was not even on our first list for consideration as we tried to build up our equinics team. As joe decided that the number three ranked Tom and Pap would go 9 furlong and my own alternative had a long time injury as some of you may have read on the sim message board, we had to search some time to find her.
Well, here she is with only seven starts, all on turf, resulting in 3 wins and 4 seconds, her race pattern in her last six races was always an alternate ending. If she runs up to this pattern she will end with a very good second place. She already won a stakes in her last start and the best speed figure in her cv is a 97 from two starts back. Furthermore she is unbeaten this distance clearing her maiden in her only try over a mile. Needs to take one or two steps forward in this company, but looks a promising horse in the making. Add to that her odds of 25/1 and she looks like the most valuable to bet on. And as joe also trains Tom and Pap you know here is a trainer who knows how to prepare young fillies for the turf.
YASS(KY) rapier QUEENSLAND Another one with a pattern that could stamp her a winner in today's outing, though she failed last time in open allowance company and three starts back in graded company as she faded into fifth 3.5 lengths behind MISS TIMOSHENKO(CAN). But she has won five of ten lifetime starts and three of the last five. Her best win was two starts back with a sf of 98 over a mile. Can score.
MARVELOUS HAACK(KY) castilette Hispano Parlante
Hola guapa! Que nina mas bonita! After winning the last four in a row this beautiful girl by Awesome Again x Forty Niner x Danzig is looking for a five timer. She managed to win 6 races in eleven starts, showing triple digit speed in her last two and missed the board only in her very first race when she finished 4th. Though she is up in task in this class for the first time, she can be anything.
STREET PRINCESS(KY) alysheba Universal Racing Club
Race co-favorite, number two in the ranking, winner of her last three races, all graded stakes, last two both G1 wins one of them the Irish 1000 Guineas with speed figures of 109 in her last two starts, the highest sf in this field. Looks the business on Form. The one to beat.
QUEEN OF GOTHAM(JPN) dolphinman Empire State Racing With only three lifetime wins in eleven starts and no win this year she does not look like a winner type. But she has a graded win as a 2yo to her credits, was in the money nine times, did run into 3rd in the Breeder's Bowl Filly Juvy Turf. She was on the board in her last three races and showed triple digit speed figures in all of those with the highest being a 105. Been waiting for this race and must be included in all exotics. Has the form to feature.
DREAM T(ENG) albarace0 Saltire
Won her first two starts this year, a maiden and an allowance followed by a 2nd place showing her best speed figure of 90, lost form afterwards and needs to improve in this company. Upset material at her very best, but unlikely today. Albeit good to see a fresh residency showing up and collecting some experience.
PASSED ZA(NZ) stickem East-West-Connection
Showed her class last time winning the G2 The Sandy Ring under the same conditions like today with a speed figure of 105 against the re-opposing GLOBAL FREQUENCY(KY). Consider.
MAURITANIA(KY) stormboot2 Vermont
Graded placed stakes winner. Always races in good company, has never seen an allowance.
High speed figure of 104 in her next to last start, very promising filly from ambitious and talented trainer with an amazing strike rate of 28.4%.
My crazy bets:
each way on EXTERNAL NOISE(KY) 1 point to win, 2 points place and show
exacta box on EXTERNAL NOISE(KY) and GLOBAL FREQUENCY(KY)
exacta box on EXTERNAL NOISE(KY) against all
exacta/trifecta box with QUEEN OF GOTHAM(JPN), STREET PRINCESS(KY) and MISS TIMOSHENKO(CAN)
Good luck to all, I hope you will have lots of fun at the equinics!
Grade-1 Dell Webb Oaks by species48 on Friday, August 24, 2012 at 2:05:58 PM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Balanced field of nine 3 year old fillies vie on the California Turf --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Usually when I use the word “balanced” to describe a race it means that there is a nice mix of early speed, pace pressers, stalkers, mid pack closers and off pace closers populating the field. In the Grade-1 Dell Oaks, contested at the “classic” distance of 9 furlongs on the firm California Turf Course, the context that I use the word balanced in the Oaks description is that, in my estimation, all 9 of today’s entries have at least a decent chance to win the event. The track handicapper has made trainer Alysheba11’s filly Street Princess a modest 4-1 favorite, with 3 graded stakes victories in her last 4 starts and over $1-Million in earnings, you would usually expect odds of 5-2 or even 2-1. However the Track Handicapper wisely chose discretion when penning the Morning Line as the field is filled with “classy” fillies that have winning ways, trainer Broohar3’s filly Arc A Comin was tabbed as the 9-2 second choice, fresh off a scintillating 3 length victory in the Grade-2 Gerry Cooney Stakes. Third choice at 5-1 is trainer Skunkbred3’s filly Stash Your Gold, she’s won 4 of her last 5 including a smashing 2 ½ length romp to victory in the Grade-1 Frankfurt-Niederrad Stake in her last start. The longest odds in the race at 11-1 belong to trainer Delaware’s filly Surrealistic, who has 6 wins in her 13 starts and earned over $500-K in her brief career, pretty darn good credentials for the longest shot in a race, I’d say.
FIELD SPEED PAR: 101.892
# 1 A THOUSAND UP ( 7/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: wispa2 Jockey: Y. Bower
S48 RATING 47.11 SPEED PAR: 100.947
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Trainer Wispa2’s filly A Thousand Up won the $80-K Cache Turf Filly Route Minor Stake four weeks ago. The race was a very good tune up for this event as it was also contested at 9 furlongs on the turf. A Thousand Up pressed Law Of Success (also in today’s Oaks field) breathing down her neck from the starting gate and finally caught Law Of Success at the 6 furlong pole, but could never really put her away prevailing by a mere ½ length, as the two fillies slugged it out all the way through the stretch.
Form: Good (improving) … generous spacing, 4 - 7 weeks between most races and lightly raced, the only “bad” effort she’s had in her 12 career starts was in the Grade-1 French Diana, when she tried 10 ½ furlongs and led to the stretch, but A Thousand Up tired badly the last 2 furlongs and faded to finish 8th of 9.
Class: Speed Par is just a bit below the field average, but she won the Grade-3 Vangard Stakes and placed 2nd in the Grade-3 Longest Walk Stake the race before that so she definitely belongs in Graded company..
COMMENT: Even though there’s no way you can dismiss trainer Wispa2’s filly A Thousand Up, who’s compiled an impressive record of 11 in the money finishes in 12 tries on the turf. I really think this race sets up extra “tough” for her because of the abundance of really quality early speed runners. She’ll have to out duel not only Law Of Success again, but also the favorite Street Princess right out of the gate. Tall order but not impossible for this talented filly.
# 2 ARC A COMIN ( 9/2 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: broohar3 Jockey: O. Brim
S48 RATING 75.02 SPEED PAR: 100.791
Style: Pace Presser / Stalker
Last Race: After 3 cracks at the Grade-1 Level with only a 3rd place finish in The Cremation Stakes to show for the efforts, trainer Broohar dropped his filly 1 Level in the Grade-2 Gerry Cooney Stake and Arc A Comin responded with a “huge” effort, stalking the early leaders in 4th just 2 lengths off the pace, Arc A Coming methodically ran down the early speed and breezed to a 2 ½ length victory recording a career best 111.584 speed figure.
Form: Excellent (neutral) … After back to back career best speed figure efforts, trainer Broohar is bringing Arc A Comin back off a short 3 weeks rest. Arc A Comin is also adding a furlong as her last 2 races were both at 8 furlongs. While this isn’t necessarily the “kiss” of death, it’s a tough maneuver at this level of competition.
Class: Her Speed Par of 100.791 is just slightly below the field average but certainly not far enough below to make her non competitive against these. She’s won a Grade-2 and finished 3rd in a Grade-1 so she fits the field ok.
COMMENT: Trainer Broohar3 is hoping to strike while his filly is riding top form, will this race send her over the top and produce a “bounce”? That certainly is a possibility, but like I said it’s by no means a guarantee. Her stalking style fits this field very nicely as there’s plenty of speed to draft, look for her to lay 4th or 5th and try to make a move at 6 furlongs.
# 3 STASH YOUR GOLD ( 5/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: skunkbred3 Jockey: G.V. Vincent
S48 RATING 83.57 SPEED PAR: 101.228
Style: Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: Trainer Skunkbred3’s filly Stash Your Gold’s last race was nothing short of “sensational”, she rallied from a stalking 8th mid pack position in an overflow field of 15 in the Grade-1 Farnkfort Niederrad, which included today’s favorite, Street Princess and Miss Timoshenko, who have combined earnings of over $4-Million to post a comfortable 2 ½ length victory.
Form: Excellent (improving) …Trainer Skunkbred3 has done a really good job of spacing Stash Your Gold’s races and finding races that maximize his filly’s chances to succeed as evidenced by the fact that she’s won 4 of 6 starts as a 3 year old.
Class: Stash Your Gold’s 101.228 Speed Par Rating puts her just a tad below the field Par, but it is more indicative of how evenly matched the field is from the class aspect. Her last race Grade-1 victory over Street Princess should erase any doubts about whether she’s outclassed in today’s race.
COMMENT: Stash Your Gold is coming off a career changing effort. She recorded her highest lifetime speed figure and made a quantum class leap forward. This race sets up perfectly for her stalking style and on the basis of those factors, I would have made her the slight favorite in today’s Oaks. I’ll be very surprised if she doesn’t a t least manage a top-3 finish.
# 4 TOM AND PAP ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: tetsch Jockey: M. Staples
S48 RATING 92.95 SPEED PAR: 101.490
Style: Mid Pack Closer / Off Pace Closer
Last Race: A good even effort in the Grade-1 Equinic Colonial Downs, saving ground early, Tom And Pap spotted the leaders 8 ½ lengths at the 4 furlong call and then proceeded to steadily grind his way to a respectable 5th place finish, 5 ½ lengths behind at the wire.
Form: Good (neutral) …. Trainer Tetsch’s filly Tom And Pap’s form looks good, she’s run identical 105 speed figures in her last 2 races, the last result was a bit worse due to the increased level of competition.
Class: Tom And Pap’s Speed Par is just about par for the field, she’s got a pair of nice Grade-2 victories under her belt, but needs to raise her speed figures 1 more notch to be at the level of her top competition in this field.
COMMENT: I’m kind of on the fence when evaluating trainer Tetsch’s filly Tom And Pap. I think there’s plenty of speed so the race should set up well for her style. However, she’s a bit inconsistent when it comes to launching her stretch rally, sometimes she fires dynamically and swallows her opponents and other times she’s more a plodding, grinding sort of runner. If she’s dynamic today she could certainly rally to a top 2 finish, but I think a grinding top half of the field finish is the more likely scenario.
# 5 STREET PRINCESS ( 4/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: alysheba11 Jockey: F. Gossett
S48 RATING 100.00 SPEED PAR: 105.733
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Trainer Alysheba11’s filly Street Princess controlled the early pace in the 8 furlong Grade-1 Frankfurt Niederrad and opened up a 1 ¾ length lead at the 6 furlong call but couldn’t hold off the stretch drive of Stash Your Gold, a real good effort but possibly a precursor of today’s Oaks.
Form: Very Good (neutral) …Street Princess has won 4 races in 6 starts as a 3 year old, her races are 4 to 5 weeks apart and she’s shown a real high level of consistency with speed figures of 109.305, 109.141 and 108.698 in her last 3 races. I don’t think form will be an issue in this race but stretching out to 9 furlongs is pushing the window of her distance threshold and could very well be the major factor in how well she fares in the Oaks.
Class: Street Princess is definitely the “class” filly in today’s race, with 2 wins and a 2nd place finish in her last 3 races, all Grade-1 efforts and a Speed Par of 105.733, there is no question that she is a Grade-1 Stakes runner.
COMMENT: Trainer Alysheba11 has entered Street Princess aggressively, and has reaped the rewards of her abilities. I always struggle when I don’t fancy the Morning Line favorite in a race, but given the quality all the early speed runners, the distance increase and the competitive level of this field overall, I think this is a very “tough” spot for his filly. While Street Princess certainly will be prominent to the 6 furlong marker, I think the last 2 furlongs will be very challenging and if she holds on for a top-2 finish in the Oaks, she deserves every accolade I will heap on her in the recap.
# 6 SURREALISTIC ( 11/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: delaware Jockey: R. Simcox
S48 RATING 67.48 SPEED PAR: 96.810
Style: Mid Pack Closer / Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: Surrealistic stalked a field of 8 in 7th position early, but she was only 4 ¾ lengths behind the leader at the 4 furlong call in the $80-K Not A Honky Tonk Turf Filly Minor Stake. She methodically kept driving and gaining on early leader Jalabhar (earnings $108-K) until he finally started to wilt with 1 furlong to go.
Form: Decent (neutral) …Trainer Delaware decided that after 3 straight Grade-1 efforts that netted him a 4th and 5th place minor award share, to drop Surrealistic back to the Minor Stake level to try and return her to her winning ways. The move worked and Surrealistic won the race with a nice effort, but she didn’t really appreciably move forward as her respectable but hardly noteworthy speed figure of 101.572 would indicate.
Class: With a Speed Par of 96.810 she’s definitely hasn’t accomplished as much against Graded Stake company as some of her rivals today. Surrealistic could move forward off that last effort, but it will take about a 10 point improvement to challenge for a top-2 finish in the Oaks.
COMMENT: Surrealistic has earned over $500-K and yet she’s the longest price on the board, while I have a hard time seeing her finish in the top-2 in the Oaks, she has already won 3 Minor Stakes and if she moves forward off that last win, a 3rd to 5th place finish is a real possibility. Certainly can’t dismiss her, even if she is the longest price.
# 7 LAW OF SUCCESS ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: mtk76hold Jockey: A. Lewis
S48 RATING 63.97 SPEED PAR: 102.102
Style: Pace Presser / Early Speed
Last Race: Gutty effort in the $80-K Cache Turf Filly Route Minor Stake. She was the early leader and even though she was collared by A Thousand Up at the 6 furlong call, trainer Mtk76hold’s filly Law Of Success never threw in the towel and the two fillies battled to the wire with Law Of Success falling a scant ½ length short at the finish line.
Form: Good (neutral) … Even though Law Of Success has posted very consistent speed ratings between 101.772 and 104.811 in her last 4 outings, I think she’s lightly raced and may actually be trending upward and could be sitting on a huge effort. She’s shown a bit of a tendency to fade in the stretch, but she really held on well in the face of extreme pressure last race and I always consider counter cyclical efforts as good signs of things to come
Class: Her Speed Par of 102.102fits the field well and her 2nd place effort in the Grade-1 Irish 1000 Guineas and victory in the Grade-3 Irish 1000 Guineas Trial shows she’s Graded Stakes caliber and fits here well.
COMMENT: This is a tough call and Mtk76hold certainly didn’t cherry pick a low end field for her return to Graded competition. Obviously the looming speed duel with A Thousand Up and Street Princess could comprise any or all of those 3 fillies chances, but I like Law Of Success to at least give a good account of herself and hang tough for at least a minor slice of this purse.
# 8 MERCATO ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: correction Jockey: M. Billig
S48 RATING 16.52 SPEED PAR: 100.539
Style: Off Pace Closer
Last Race: Trainer Correction’s filly Mercato did everything but win the Grade-1 Equinic Colonial Downs. She was really “flying” through the stretch and was gaining with every stride on winner Quality Buzz but needed another 50 yards and eventually had to settle for 2nd place money.
Form: Excellent (improving) …Confirmed late stretch runners like Mercato usually are able to hold their sharp form then the front half of the field runners. She dramatically improved her speed ratings by 9 and 7 points her last 2 starts so Mercato is obviously “peaking” with regards to form.
Class: Mercato’s Speed Par is slightly below (1+ point) the field average, and this is due to Speed Figure inconsistency because of the early lagging of the off pace closers, who commonly are 10 – 15 lengths behind early, when they don’t fire the resulting speed figure is usually abnormally low and tend to drag down averages. This is also why late closers tend to show more in the money finishes then wins commonly.
COMMENT: If the anticipated “blazing” speed duel between the trio of early runners develops, trainer Correction’s filly should be one of the runners who benefits the most. Mercato is fit and coming out of a “key” race where she was still full of run at the finish line. A repeat of her Colonial Downs effort puts her squarely in the top-2 finish mix.
Last Race: Won the $60-K Turning Japanese Turf Special Minor Stake. Trainer Super10’s filly Kubanskaya stalked the 3 early leaders who battled heads and necks apart for the early lead thru 4 furlongs, when the speed duel started to collapse, she made her move at the 6 furlong pole and gradually pulled away to win by 2 widening lengths.
Form: Very Good (improving) …Ever since she pulled up lame while running in a Classified Allowance contest back in March of this year, after a 9 week layoff, Kubanskaya returned with a vengeance and is riding a 4 race win streak including 2 Minor Stake wins in her last 2 races. She’s also well tested at 9 furlongs and beyond winning at 10 & 11 furlongs as well as 9 so form and distance both are registering positive. However she is returning on a short 3 week freshening and that can be detrimental at this level.
Class: Her Speed Par of 93.226 is clearly well below today’s level of competition, throw in the fact that this is her 1st try at Graded Stakes company and she’s got a real class hurdle to overcome. On a positive note, Kubanskaya did register a career best 106.560 speed figure in her last winning effort and if she can raise that bar just 2 or 3 points, she should register a real nice finish despite the lack of Graded class experience.
COMMENT: Trainer Super10 has Kubanskaya on the upswing and even though she’s never faced this level before, she’s got a lot of positives at 10-1, so a slice of this purse is well within her capabilities.
SELECTIONS:
CLASSCAPPER: # 5 STREET PRINCESS
SPEEDCAPPER: # 7 LAW OF SUCCESS
FORMCAPPER: # 3 STASH YOUR GOLD
ANGLECAPPER: # 8 MERCATO
LONGSHOT CHARLIE: # 6 SURREALISTIC
Grade-1 Dell Webb Oaks Recap by species48 on Sunday, August 26, 2012 at 3:17:08 PM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tom And Pap races her way into the Millionaire’s Club --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Round and the round goes the parade of Grade-1 winners in the 3 year old filly Turf Route Division. The latest winner, trainer Tetsch’s Tom And Pap has been throwing hints like her 2nd place effort in the Grade-1 Japanese 1000 Guineas and her win in the Grade-2 Full Moon Handicap that she’s been ready to join the Grade-1 winners club. She did it in fine fashion in the Grade-1 Dell Webb Oaks, rallying from 8th she “mowed” down trainer Skunkbred3’s Stash Your Gold and the tiring trainer Wispa2’s A Thousand Up to prevail by a widening 1 ¾ lengths. Much to trainer Tetsch’s delight the spoils from the victory also propelled Tom And Pap’s career earnings over the $1-Million dollar mark and stamped her as a probable Breeder Bowl contender.
RACE RECAP:
As expected trainer Alysheba11’s filly Street Princess streaked to the early lead, running the opening quarter mile in a speedy 22:75. However, the lead didn’t come easy however, as trainer Wispa2 had instructed apprentice jockey Y. Bower to run with her and apply as much early pressure as she could. Trainer Broohar3’s filly Arc’s A Comin and Mtk76hold’s filly Law Of Success stalked in 3rd and 4th about 1 ½ lengths behind the lead pair. The mid pack group was led by trainer Skunkbred3’s filly Stash Your Gold while trainer Tetsch’s filly Tom And Pap and trainer Correction’s filly Mercato brought up the rear of the field, 7 ¾ and 10 lengths back respectively.
The half mile went in a quick 46:18 and there was never more than a length separating Street Princess and A Thousand Up. The rest of the field remained in early order but all dropped a bit further behind, with the exception of Mercato who was obviously struggling just to remain in contact with the field.
Street Princess hung on to the lead thru 5 furlongs, but as the field hit the 6 furlong marker on the far turn, A Thousand Up had inched by her to assume the lead. Arc A Comin, Law Of Success and Stash Your Gold all loomed large and were bunched up only 2 ½ to 3 ½ lengths back. Tom and Pap was rolling as she passed the struggling Surrealistic and Kubanskaya and had already cut 5 ½ lengths off the leaders cushion. M. Billig was feverishly urging Mercato, but she just wasn’t firing with her usual late enthusiasm.
Deep Stretch saw both Stash Your Gold and the “flying” Tom And Pap rapidly catching the now tiring A Thousand Up. The race was over for the rest of the field, with early race pacesetter, Street Princess fading badly and the rest struggling just to keep pace. With 50 yards to go the 3 leaders were noses apart, but it was obvious that A Thousand Up was really tiring from her early efforts and would have to settle for 3rd, Stash Your Gold was still going fairly well but just couldn’t match strides with Tom And Pap, who went by her in a flourish and was pulling away at the wire.
.
Race Comments: (in order of finish)
TOM AND PAP: she didn’t plod or grind in today’s race, rallying with a “flourish” throughout the stretch drive, prevailed 30 yards from the wire and won pulling away, it looked like she could run all day. Tetsch’s millionaire filly has that Breeder Bowl look!
STASH YOUR GOLD: stalked the early leaders in 5th mid pack, steady gain between 5 & 7 furlongs, running 2nd and was steadily catching the tiring leader by mid stretch. Had dead aim on the fading leader and the race in her grasp but couldn’t hold off late rallying winner.
A THOUSAND UP: tough, game effort, applied hard pressure to early leader, surged to the lead at 6 furlong call. Dug in but tired in mid stretch and faded to 3rd, easily best of the rest
LAW OF SUCCESS: good even effort, unable to match strides with early leaders, stalked pace never far back to 7 furlongs, dug in and dueled Arc’s A Comin throughout stretch, prevailed to earn 4th.
ARC’S A COMIN : stalked leaders comfortably in 3rd, to 6 furlong call, no rally response when jockey asked for more in stretch, dueled Law Of Success for 4th throughout stretch but eventually settled for 5th.
STREET PRINCESS: betting favorite led thru 5 furlongs, but had steady pressure to deal with and could never separate and draw away. Lost lead at 6 furlong call and tired badly from 7 furlongs out.
SURREALISTIC: even decent effort, was an uncompetitive 7th throughout, no rally at 6 furlong pole, but remained steady, didn’t lose much ground but couldn’t gain ground either.
KUBANSKAYA: never prominent, tracked early speed in 6th mid pack, also remained steady and didn’t lose much ground but like Surrealistic couldn’t gain ground either and faded back to 8th.
MERCATO: dull effort, couldn’t keep up with early pace, already had dropped 15 ½ lengths back at 4 furlong call. Offered no real response to jockey urging at 6 furlong call, “bounced” after 2 huge efforts?
Spotlight Tip Results from Berkshire by roxyken on Sunday, August 26, 2012 at 7:34:17 PM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nine top Picks Cash In. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A very good day at Berkshire this weekend with 9 top picks winning. Four other choice were also first across the finish line. A total of 7 exacta’s/boxes which was capped with a straight $123.10 in the second race. Also had one boxed trifecta.
...
RACE 12
7. Everdeen will be looking to wire field. On board in all five career starts. Needs to watch out for closers though.
5. Maravilla Haack made nice late rally in last to draw off by two. Capable of repeat.
3. Asperger is always lurking around and shouldn’t be overlooked.
Everdeen could not reel in the pacesetter and took the second spot. Asperger brought home a paycheck for third place finish, hitting speed of 90 for first time in the process. ...
Thirteen Go For Victory in Buck Dharma, Post Time 1:20 PM OGT by flrancho on Friday, February 01, 2013 at 9:56:41 PM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race Attracts From Across Globe --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race: Buck Dharma Handicap Track: Florida Restrictions: Restricted to 4 year olds and older Distance: Eleven furlongs on the Turf The highlight race for this first week in February is the Buck Dharma Handicap (G2). The eleven furlong race over the turf has drawn top horses from all over the world to cumulate in a field of thirteen that will be going to the gate to try to contend for the ultimate purse of $150,000. Set to go off before noon on Saturday, the race, set on a firm turf track, is sure to be an exciting one as several former graded stakes winners take to the track. Let’s take a look at this years’ contenders.
1. Dynamique - (Dynaformer x Montjeu (IRE) x Kris S.) - brightvalr - J. White
The first horse to load into the gate on Saturday in the number one post will be this Kentucky-bred, winner of over one million in career earnings. The four-year-old colt is ranked number seven in his division and is a former Grade II winner. The brown colt made his most recent start overseas in Hong Kong last year during the Hong Kong Vase (G1) at twelve furlongs. After breaking from the gate in the middle of the pack, the then three-year-old made his move down the stretch, but it wasn’t enough as he came up short to finish second by two and a half lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred twelve. Previously the colt had won both the Flying Carpet Handicap (G2) and Ark Trial (G3) back to back. In Saturday’s race, the colt will likely be placed in a closing position, not making a move until the stretch after holding back at the start of the race.
2. Got To The Top (Dynaformer x Pivotal (GB) x Storm Cat) - racinpogs2 - B. Scott
The second horse to go to the gate will be the second horse sired by the late sire Dynaformer. The five-year-old chestnut has earned over half a million in career earnings. He too made his last start in 2012. The race came here in Florida over a turf track listed as good, during the running of the At Night Cap (G2), at twelve furlongs. Aboard at the time was jockey B. Scott, who also will be riding for this race. The horse set off and broke towards the rear of the field but started to make a move later on in the race. He would come up short though and finish second by three lengths, setting a speed figure of one hundred eight. This was an improvement off of his disappointing eighth place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Turf (G1) earlier in the year. One would have to go back to June to see his last win though, when he won The Grand Prix (G2) by three and a quarter lengths. Much like the horse in the slot to his left, he should be out of the gate slow and not make his move until late.
3. King To Groom (JPN) - (King Kamehameha (JPN) x Blushing Groom (FR) x Nureyev) - aredneck - S. S. Ledwith
Born and bred in Japan, the four-year-old brown colt is making his first trip to the United States for this race. Previously raced on the other side of the globe for all his starts, it will be interesting to see how the colt adapts to the travel and track differences. The most recent start for the colt was in New Zealand during the Manatee Cup (G3) at eleven furlongs. The colt broke out of the gate sharply and took the lead. He never backed down from the front of the pack and managed to hang on to the win with three and a half lengths to spare at the wire. He set a speed figure of one hundred thirteen for the race in what was just his third graded start of his career. Unlike the two to his inside, this colt is a speedster, and he will likely be taking the lead at the start on Saturday, or at least very close to it if he is beaten out of the gate.
4. External Noise (Lemon Drop Kid x Worldly Manner x A.P. Indy) - joe999 - B. Rahill
Going into just his second graded start of her lifetime, the brown four-year-old is the only filly to be in the running this weekend with the boys. She is lightly raced with fifteen starts and has won a total of $285,065 in career earnings. The filly has recently come off two consecutive victories at listed stakes level, the Purple Flute Turf Mare Stayer and the Exclamation Turf Filly Stayer. She now will be taking a step up in class, and returning to the States, for her next race. The fillies sole experience with a graded start was last year during the mile long Frankfurt-Niederrad (G1) in which she crossed the wire to finnish ninth. The filly is a versatile runner, though will likely be sitting right off the pace at the break.
5. Mihilta - (Mineshaft x Danehill x Riverman) -tonytone - J. Webb
Taking a huge jump forward in class for this race, the brown five-year-old horse will be making his twenty-second career start this Saturday as he attempts to impress in his first stakes race of any kind in his career. The horse only has three victories under his belt and has recently been racing in allowance caliber races, so he’ll likely have his work cut out for him Saturday as he faces much tougher competition than he has ever faced before. His most recent start was a twelve furlong allowance race in California. The horse broke second out of the gate and eventually made his way up to the lead, winning by three-quarters of a length and setting a lifetime best speed figure of one hundred four. It seems perhaps that the horse favored the yielding turf course on which he was running as opposed to the firm course he had been running over for all of his other turf starts. He will likely be forwardly placed out of the gate.
6. Analysis Paralysis (IRE) - (Galileo (IRE) x Danzig x Busted (GB)) - milktea - D. Gellner
Lightly raced at fifteen starts for his seven years, the brown horse will be trying once again to make a mark at the graded level. His dam, Mammoth Fuzz, achieved her greatest accomplishment in becoming graded placed in the Not Yet Over The Hill Stakes (G3) when she finished second. This colt, has not realized his potential, and has faltered at his graded and listed stakes attempts. At seven years old, time may be running short for this horse to snare a big race. The most recent race for the colt was the nine and a half furlong Her Cap Turf Route, a listed stakes. Breaking in the middle of the pack, the horse didn’t progress much throughout the race and came home where he started at seventh, sixteen and three-quarter lengths off the pace and setting a speed figure of ninety. The most recent graded start for the horse was last year in The Harry Potter (G3) at ten furlongs in Germany. Again the colt broke mid-pack but faded in the latter part of the race and finished eleventh. Like his other races, the horse will likely settle in mid-pack and look to pull up a major upset down the stretch.
7. Glaring Omission - (Bernardini x Southern Halo x Deputy Minister (CAN)) - mjk07
Already a Grade I winner and earner of over a million dollars, the seven-year-old chestnut horse is looking to make a rebound off his last race, which ended in a bit of a disappointment for the connections of the horse. Most recently the horse ran in the Hong Kong Cup (G1) at ten furlongs. After breaking just off the lead of a few horses at the start, the horse would fade in the stretch of the race to finish twelve lengths back in tenth, while setting a speed figure of one hundred seven. Even his prior fifth place finish with being eleven and a half lengths back in Flying Carpet Handicap (G2) is uncharacteristic for the chestnut horse. The race prior to these two he was more himself when he stormed home to win by one and three-quarter lengths The Roberto Clemente (G1). This is the horse that the connections are hoping will show up again for this weekends’ race. The horse will likely be one of the first out of the gate and may set off of a few front runners or possibly challenge other horses for the lead early on.
8. No Qualification (IRE) - (Galileo (IRE) x Pivotal (GB) x Seeking The Gold) - fairhaven5
The brown Irish-bred horse will be seeking out his first graded stakes win of his career this Saturday. Despite a few attempts before, the five-year-old as so far come up short, managing to snag a placing, but never the win. His most recent start was last year in the King Kong Vase (G1) at twelve furlongs. Breaking just off the pace of a couple front runners at the start, the horse would fade in the stretch to finish fifth, five lengths back, and recording a speed figure of one hundred ten. He came even closer than that prior in the Flying Carpet Handicap (G2) where he would finish second. Going back another start we find his most recent win, an impressive four and a quarter length victory in the listed Judge Zach Turf Endurance. Like the horse to his inside, he will likely seek out a position just off the lead, though he could challenge for the lead as well and become the race pacesetter.
9. Minister Of Magic - (Dynaformer x Sadler’s Wells x Gone West) - sheen - V. Jef
Yet another runner of the late sire Dynaformer to be entered to run in this race, the five-year-old brown horse is looking for his first Grade I win this weekend. Accomplished as a Grade II runner, the most illustrious races have so far escaped the horse. The most recent start for the earner of over one million was the Galaxian Stakes (G3) at ten furlongs. Breaking around the middle of the pack, the horse didn’t advance much in the race and came home where he started in fifth, though just four and a half lengths off the pace of the eventual winner. He set a speed figure of one hundred ten. Prior to this the horse almost managed to win a Grade I, but came up short by two lengths in The Fall Tent Show (G1). His most recent win was in the Spankie-Sho All Comers (G2) at eleven furlongs in Japan. The horse will likely want to settle back just off the pace of a few other horses, however he has shown that if things get crowded up front, he’ll be able to shuffle back to mid-pack without hurting his chances.
10. Pristine Dream (GER) - (Monsun (GER) x Miswaki x Northern Dancer (CAN)) - megabps - T. Kelly
Attempting to win his first graded race this weekend, the brown five-year-old horse will be making just his second attempt at a graded race in his career. He managed to hit the board on his lone attempt to date and is an accomplished runner at the listed level. The German-bred horse last ran in the Race Series for blazingsad, a listed stakes race at eleven furlongs in which the horse finished fourth, but was a good eleven lengths back off the pace from the winner. He set a speed figure of one hundred eight. His prior race was a much different story as he won the Secret River Turf Stayer by two and a half lengths and emerged out of his sole graded run, The Cup of Europe (G3), in second place. The horse should be forwardly placed out of the gate this weekend and will likely sit off the pace of a few other horses.
11. Automated (AUS) - (Redoute’s Choice (AUS) x Giant’s Causeway x Nureyev) - henny - B. Renfroe
Out of the allowance winning broodmare Keep On Turnin’ the Australian-bred five-year-old horse has far outrun the abilities of his dam. He is a Grade II winner and is approaching the half million dollar mark in career earnings. His most recent start was last year out in California in the Race Series for blazingsad, a listed stakes race at twelve furlongs. The horse broke on the lead but was overtaken later on down the stretch and would eventually come home to finish third, four lengths back with a speed figure set of one hundred thirteen. Two graded races came, both with fifth place finishes after the horses most recent victory, The Rheinstone (G2), in Germany at twelve furlongs. The hose won by four lengths after setting just off the pace of the leader out of the gate. This horse will be wanting the lead out of the gate if he can get it, though if he finds himself challenged, he can drop back off the pace successfully.
12. An Untraditional Vow - (Broken Vow x Mineshaft x Miswaki) - willyam38 - A. Fairfield
Working our way to the end of the field for this weekends race, the six-year-old brown horse will be going in the number twelve slot. The Kentucky-bred will be looking for his first graded win of his career, despite several attempts that have landed him on the board but never in the winners circle. His most recent start, coming last year overseas in Italy was in The Jockey’s Weapon (G1) at twelve furlongs. After breaking mid-pack at the start of the race, the horse turned on the power down the stretch and crossed the wire in second, though still three and a quarter lengths behind the winner. He set a speed figure of one hundred four. He also received second placements in both The Stars and Bars (G3) and the Pan Americana Handicap (G3). His most recent win was in a twelve furlong allowance race. The horse will likely settle in mid-pack at the break of Saturday’s race, though he has been able to stay far off the pace in past races with success.
13. El Aleman (GER) - (Doyen (GER) x E. Dubai x A.P. Indy) - haackotto - J. Shelden
The last horse to go into the gate this weekend and breaking from the far outside post will be this brown six-year-old horse, winner of eleven races in his career. Out of the stakes-placed broodmare Mellow Melissa, he has yet to meet the same success as his dam with his greatest achievement being allowance victories. The most recent start for the German-bred horse was last year in Kentucky during an eleven furlong allowance race in which he won by two and three-quarter lengths after breaking just off the pace. He set a speed figure of one hundred nine for the race. Prior to this he impressive won another allowance race by five and a half lengths after going wire to wire. Saturday will be the horses first attempt at any caliber of race higher than allowance level. He is a versatile runner, but will likely be mid-pack at the break on Saturday.
Preview Toilet Scrubbers Anonymous Handicap by spinround on Friday, February 01, 2013 at 8:56:34 PM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post Time 2:10:00 OGT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A full field of fourteen lines up in Michigan for the Grade One Toilet Scrubbers Anonymous Handicap. The race is run over a mile and three sixteenths on a fast dirt course and the purse is $250,000. The field breaks down almost evenly between grade one winners, graded winners and the rest. We’ll take a brief look at each of the runners now.
Just Vengeance is the first grade one winner in the field. The six year old son of Jazil has banked over three million dollars. The 2010 New Yorker winner has not won a grade one since 2010 but has been a consistent graded runner over the past two seasons. Blakely is a six year old son of Montjeu whose best races have come on the turf including a win in the Champion Stakes. He has run three times on the dirt, all in the last four months and include a second in the Grade Two Hamburg Hall. Chinook Down is a six year old son of Rock of Gibraltar who won two grade ones last season. Both wins came at a mile and one quarter but he tailed off towards the end of the season. Confidently Wrong is a five year old son of Encosta de Lago and the reigning champion in this race. In the ensuing year Confidently Wrong has won three times, although those wins came at the allowance and listed level. Top Five Records rounds out the grade one winners in the field. He’s a five year old son of Conduit and he enters off his first career G-1 win, the Japan Dirt Cup.
Ghost to Ghost is a four year old son of Stephen Got Even. He earned his grade three win as a two year old but is coming off a strong allowance win at this distance, where he ran a 112 speed. Pop a Bottle is a lightly raced four year old son of Tapit. He enters off his biggest career victory, the Grade Three DPCD XI- Enjoy where he defeated older runners while earning a 115 speed. Another four year old in the field is Earache, a son of Giant’s Causeway who won the Grade Three Rebel Yell last spring. He has hit the board in five additional stakes races since then, including a third in the Grade One Bob Woodward versus older rivals last summer. Dead Again is a seven year old son of Empire Maker who is in career best form. He’s hit the board in seven of his last eight races with his only off the board performance coming in the Breeders’ Bowl.
Main Runner is a graded placed stakes winner by Monsun. He’s run competitively in his career but has only won three times in sixteen starts. Marmalade Fan is a listed stakes winner who only made his graded debut in his last start. Distorted Impact is another listed winner who in three graded efforts has never hit the board but also never finished worse than sixth. He enters off two straight allowance victories at this distance. Distorted Moment is a stakes placed five year old. After spending most of his career running in allowance races, Distorted Moment finished third in a listed stakes last time out with a 112 speed. Tiz the Power is a four year old son of Tiznow who only recently entered stakes company and he’s compiled a 3-1-0-2 record while doing it.
Top Two 3yo Sprinters in G2 Swale by kiddman on Friday, February 08, 2013 at 8:17:24 PM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, February 09, 2013 -- 1:50:00 PM EST | Race ID : 1010821 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The two highest-ranked 3yo dirt sprinters in the Sim try each other and a field of high-quality hopefuls in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes this Saturday at Florida over 6.5 furlongs on the dirt track. Four of the competitors have already won graded stakes at this early point of their racing careers and four more have won smaller stakes races.
This excellent race is just one of six graded stakes races on Saturday's Florida racing card, so a day at the track amongst the pink flamingoes sounds like a great way to spend the day!
This race may not be completely on "The Derby Trail", but it's close... Some of these have shown that 2-turn racing isn't in the cards at this point, and some are just a little too early in their development to try 2-turning against top competition at this point in time. You never know; one or even some of these may be right in the thick of the top runners in a few months, maybe... Some may end up running in tiny allowances or claimers, too...
Anyway, let's have a look-see:
EURO SMILE had a tremendous freshman season in 2012, with a #2 ranking earned by virtue of a pair of graded-stakes wins. The Any Given Saturday colt has tried 2-turning once, with unsatisfactory results; he comes back to his strong suit here. Trainer abacus has given his runner a short freshening for his 3yo debut, and the 5/2 favorite appears ready for a strong effort.
FRISCO FOG's owner shoots for the moon and the stars... One nice maiden win and it goes to lunceford's head. Still, the 16/1 shot has a nice-looking pedigree (3x4 inbred to Storm Cat), so he can't completely be ruled out. He'll need to be at his very best, though.
PUBLIC FUNDS has won half of his four career starts, but the speed ratings have well below par; the Conduit colt will need a huge effort to contend in this for seedly at 16/1. His one really poor effort was in a graded stakes around 2 turns; was it the distance or the company that did him in?
DRUNKEN DRAMA was a hard-charging 2nd to BAD SCOOTER last time out, and gets a bit more distance to use his closing rush here. The monmouth trainee returns to the site of his first two career victories, and the Big Drama colt has a genuine shot at this. Odds look tasty at 7/1.
NINETYNINEPROBLEMS is a blueblooded Distorted Humor colt with tons of promise (like all of these, who knows?), but he failed pretty badly when tried at a route and was a fairly non-threatening 3rd in a graded sprint last time out. The seahero trainee will need to pick up his game in order to get the job done here. The CPU sees something, though, and sets him at 6/1.
BAD SCOOTER has caught fire recently, capturing four in a row after a second foray into turf racing. The Invincible Spirit colt took home his first graded-stakes trophy last out, beating DRUNKEN DRAMA in the process. The dundey7 trainee is on a roll right now and is co-2nd choice at 6/1.
THUNDER SLAM is one of just two stakes winners by little-used sire Thunderello, but the CPU gives him some respect despite at 9/1 for good reason; the speedy zibby trainee has been impressive since his late-fade in his debut and could surprise on his best day here.
HUNTERS FOLLY has a pair of graded sprint wins; his only bad runs were in a turf try and in a route try. The Zabeel colt gets 6/1 odds and the whippinboy trainee may very well be the one to beat.
COWTOWN TRICK is the top-ranked 3yo sprinter right now, and tries to add to his lead in that category here. The cloud9farm trainee had a huge 2yo season, winning a pair of Graded stakes including the Churchill Equinics race and nearly a million Sim bucks. His 3yo debut was the Cowtown Cat colt's first 2-turn try, and his late fade earned him a trip right back in with the sprinters where he gets 7/1 odds. He's speedy and dangerous, but the 6.5 furlongs appears to be right at the far end of his endurance capabilities.
CODEX REGIUS is a Super Saver colt who just missed in a longer stakes last time after a couple of poor efforts in graded 2-turn stakes just before that. The redsox15 trainee shortens up for this and gets 7/1 odds.
Time to apply the incredible powers of my Binford 2000 Crsytal Ball to this... MORE POWER!
I contemplate the smokey hole in the table where my crystal ball once stood...
Okay, time to get another one... Shouldn't have ordered it from the place that coyote told me about... What is it nowwww... Um, ACME, yeah that's it... American Company, Makes Everything. Gonna steer clear of those guys from now on...
Anyway, back to the Swale Stakes:
I'm gonna pick HUNTERS FOLLY to steal the deal here...
NINETYNINEPROBLEMS will be right there.
EURO SMILE looks good to be 3rd.
That exploding crystal ball still bugs me... BUGS!! Yeah, know what? I'm gonna go ask that wiseguy wabbit where he gets HIS tricks from. Unlike whatever that coyote tries, that wascawwy wabbit's twicks always seem to work... That tweachewous twickster... Huhhuhhuhhuhhuhhuh... (I'm weally gonna fill 'im fulla lead!)
Weeks ago, when a 75 percent chance of rain was forecast for the big dances in the Dubai desert this weekend, Derbyfever trainers were starting to prep their mudders and off-track turf horses to spring some huge upsets in the 2013 Dubai spring carnival of racing.
But with the turf course condition forecast to be good and the dirt course condition also listed as good, the weather may not play as big a part in the outcomes of the races this weekend as some thought it originally would play.
With $6,000,000 on the line in the Sand Castle Classic for the 10-furlong dirt horses, there are some pretty surprising--and pretty terrific--entries in the biggest of the big money races this weekend in Dubai.
This year’s 2013 Sand Castle Classic has drawn a full field of 14, which is no surprise, and 11 of those 14 are grade 1 winners, again no surprise there.
But there are some surprises in this field of 14 in that there are a few horses in here, including the 5/1 morning line favorite Pretty Fly, that are not exactly household names.
Pretty Fly has drawn the rail, and he’s got some pretty legitimate early speed. And, that rail and the number 1 barrier that Pretty Fly is going to launch his run from could make all the difference in the world for his chances this weekend.
There are, indeed, some big names in here, like 2012 Breeders’ Bowl Classic winner Too Many Larry, who is here to defend his 2012 Sand Castle Classic crown this weekend. He‘s here with 2012 Bluegrass Derby winner Ras El Hanout, who’s looking to shake off the Triple Crown hangover from his grueling 2012 schedule.
And, there’s Twist Twist, who won the 2011 Breeders’ Bowl winner. He’s here, too, along with Skitzoid, who’s got nearly $2.5 million in earnings in only 17 career starts.
But, along with those big names, there are others, like Pretty Fly, that you may not have heard very much of before this year‘s Sand Castle Classic field was drawn.
Most prominent among those relative unknowns who are looking to make their mark here in the desert and possibly springboard their way to huge seasons in 2013 are Settle For Satin, a lightly raced five year old colt from the Supertaffy Stables. He’s a four year old colt who no one seems to have heard of, and he’s got a huge shot in Dubai this weekend. Supertaffy’s managed to keep this one pretty much under wraps so far, but all that could change this weekend, if the chips fall his way on the Dubai dirt course.
There’s also Split Second, who really started to make his mark in Grade 1 company in the second half of 2012, but he’s also lightly raced and looking to make a name for himself in Dubai this weekend. He finished second to Too Many Larry in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic in 2012, and it looks like Psyduck might be looking to cash in some chips of his own with this colt who has drawn the 14 barrier in the Sand Castle Classic this weekend.
Lucky Prayer, from the Kevoman Stables, also is another who you may not have heard a whole lot about, but he looks poised to strike it rich in Dubai this weekend, as he enters the race off back-to-back 114 speed figure races.
Here is the field for the $6,000,000 Sand Castle Classic on the Dubai dirt course, at a distance of ten furlongs, for four year olds and up.
(1) PRETTY FLY (KY) Owner: Sweet16 Odds: 5/1
(Medaglia D’Oro x Rock Hard Ten x Bold Hour)
Career Record: 19 9-6-1 Earnings: $699,090
If you want to talk about horses who have flown under the radar coming in here, Pretty Fly fits that category to a “T”. He also fits extremely well in the “What Have You Done For Me Lately?” category. The five year old son of Medaglia D’Oro, who also has Rock Hard Ten and Bold Hour in his scratch-bred pedigree, has won seven of his last eight starts coming in here. And despite the fact that he’s only got three graded starts in his 19 career starts, he’s been throwing around some pretty blistering speed figures of late. Check out his past performances. He’s thrown speed figures of 113, 115, 116, 121, 116 and 116 in his last six starts. His only defeat in his last eight starts came last October, when he was nipped by ¼ of a length in the Grade 2 Hoffa Cup in New Jersey by a pretty darned nice colt who goes by the name of Prenzlauerberg. If it weren’t for that loss, Pretty Fly would come in here riding an eight-race winning streak. He threw a 121 speed figure in winning the Grade 3 Stubborn Pheasant three starts back, and all that Pretty Fly did last time out was beat quite a few of these he’ll be facing this weekend, when he scored a gate-to-wire win in the Grade 1 Glenn Falls Handicap. In his last six starts, he has led at every call of every race he’s run in, except for that narrow defeat in the Grade 2 Hoffa Cup. This colt is full of speed, and he draws the rail here, which means you’ll most likely see #1 flashing early on top of the tote board. You can bet he’ll be on the lead here early in Dubai this weekend, if his past performance charts are any indication. In a field of late closers, this guy looks to be pretty much the legitimate early speed in this race. The one question mark he has coming in here is that he’s never run 10 furlongs before in his 19 starts. That sticks out like a sore thumb on what is otherwise a near-perfect resume. But he’s blessed with so much early speed that the rest of this field better not let this guy get too far out in front early. They might not catch him late if they do let him run off and hide early. He’s also never run on an off-track once in his career, and this race looks like it might be holding some moisture, given the fact that the weather forecasters are giving Dubai a 75-percent chance of rain on the biggest day of racing in the desert all year. Can he overcome not having any ten-furlong experience? Will this speedy colt who is primed and ready coming in here handle what is likely to be an off track in Dubai this weekend. We’ll see. But, with the speed figures he’s been throwing around, if he can answer those two questions, this morning line favorite could be ready to pounce on this field in the biggest dirt stage of all this spring. Watch Pretty Fly closely. Sweet16’s colt might be ready to pull off a big one here in the desert this weekend.
(2) DWARF (KY) Owner: Grrm2 Odds: 9/1
(Dynaformer x Awesome Again x A.P. Indy)
Career Record: 34 13-7-3 Earnings: $2,927,536
The six year old scratch-bred son of Dynaformer who has nearly $3 million in career earnings couldn’t quite decide if he wanted to be a turf star or a dirt star. He’s won graded events on both surfaces, but it looks like his owner, Dan of Given Stables, has settled on dirt glory for his horse who’s finished in the top three in 23 of his 34 career starts. Early on in his career, he was tearing it up on the grass. He’s made 16 of his 34 starts on that surface, and he’s got three graded wins on the grass. In his 18 dirt starts, he’s got two graded wins, the biggest of which came last year, when he won the 9-furlong Grade 1 Hit Me Handicap in Upper New York. He was super impressive in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic last season when he finished a hard-charging fourth, beaten by only two lengths. He threw a 116 speed figure on Breeders’ Bowl day in California last season. After the Grade 1 Japan Dirt Cup, he took a couple months off. Then, he warmed up for this big race in Dubai this weekend with an easy allowance win in February, something you‘ll see a lot of Given horses do before they pop a big race. He’s never won at 10 furlongs in the dirt in his career, so that’s one question he’ll be looking to answer in Dubai this weekend. But then again, he’s only run that distance on the dirt four times in his career. That might be to his advantage, though. And he looks like he won’t have a whole lot of trouble with the stretch out to a mile and ¼ here this weekend. It’s pretty nice the way this colt has been brought up to this race, with the allowance win after the freshening. He might just be ready to throw the race of his life here. He is definitely not showing any signs of burn out coming in here. And that’s what you like to see coming into a race like this with so many graded winners. Dwarf might just be ready to come up big here in the desert this weekend for Dan and Given Stables.
(3) RAS EL HANOUT (JPN) Owner: Super 21 Odds: 18/1
(Tanino Gimlet x Covent Garden (Sadlers’ Wells x Forty Niner))
Career Record: 17 7-3-1 Earnings: $2,495,670
With his breeding, it was definitely no surprise when Super Stables started Ras El Hanout on the turf to begin his career. And, when he couldn’t quite cut it on that surface as a two year old it, it was no surprise when Super Stables pulled the surface switch trigger and threw this colt on the dirt as a late two-year-old. For Super Stables, the switch to dirt was a typical, brilliant move that paid off huge dividends in 2012. The Japanese-bred son of Tanino Gimlet who is out of the Sadlers’ Wells mare Covent Garden reeled off four consecutive wins on the dirt by open lengths, including three graded victories, and people started taking notice of the Japanese-bred colt. When he scored a relatively easy victory in the 2012 Bluegrass Derby, his Super Stables owners looked like geniuses. They had just won the biggest American three-year-old dirt race with a Japanese-bred colt who looked like turf would be his way to stardom. Ras El Hanout was closing late in the Middle Jewel, the second leg of the Triple Crown, but he couldn’t quite get there, ending his bid for a Triple Crown. But a lot of people just wrote that race off as being a bit too short. After he ran a pretty even fourth in the Grade 1 New Yorker, Super Stables gave its colt a two-month break, and all he did after that freshening was return to score a really easy win in the Grade 1 Eddie Haskell with a career-high 112 speed figure (up to that point). Since then, he’s thrown in a few clunkers in his last four races, but two starts back, he threw the biggest speed figure of his career (114), when he just missed in a listed stakes in West Virginia. His last start was in the Grade 1 Glenn Handicap, his debut this season, and he didn’t do what we think he‘s capable of there. But last year’s Bluegrass Derby winner has had some time off to recover from that grueling 2012 Triple Crown campaign, and when this horse comes off a freshening, he’s shown he can be dangerous. Since his Bluegrass Derby win last season, his two best races have come after nearly 60-day layoffs. It’s no coincidence that that is almost the same amount of time he’s going to have here to get ready for the Sand Castle Classic. Look out, when this colt comes into a race rested. He’s going to be really dangerous in this spot. And Ras El Hanout’s late-closing running style should suit him perfectly here, as he looks to show the world that he can be just as good a four-year-old as he was a three-year-old.
(4) LUCKY PRAYER (KY) Owner: Kevoman2 Odds: 13/1
(Unbridled’s Song x Mr. Prospector x Buckpasser)
Career Record: 15 6-5-1 Earnings: $633,370
CoolK Racing Stables, owned by Kevoman, sends Lucky Prayer to Dubai this weekend. Lucky Prayer is one of the more interesting entrants here in Dubai this weekend, if for no other reason than he doesn’t have a whole lot of graded stakes wear and tear on him. That’s not all this four year old scratch-bred son of Unbridled’s Song has going for him this weekend, however. In his last two starts coming in here, he’s blown out a couple of 114 speed figures in two ten-furlong listed stakes wins. This colt almost threw a shocker in the third leg of the 2012 Triple Crown, when he very nearly pulled off what would have probably been one of the biggest upsets of the year in the Grade 1 New Yorker. After leading all the way in the Triple Crown’s 12-furlong third leg, he just got caught in deep stretch by your eventual winner See The Wand. This colt might have played a much bigger role in the 2012 Triple Crown, if only he had qualified for the first two legs of America‘s premier three-year-old racing spectacle. It certainly would have been an interesting scenario to see what Lucky Prayer could have done in the first two much shorter legs of the Triple Crown had he run in them, that’s for sure. We think it’s going to play to his advantage here that he did not go through the 2012 Triple Crown gauntlet. Once he finished second in the New Yorker, he showed he was for real after he came back and finished second and third, respectively, in the Grade 1 Clerk Of Scales up in Canada and the Grade 1 Travelers’ in Upper New York. He comes in here very hot, he’s got a ton of early speed to push morning line favorite Pretty Fly early, and if those two don’t kill each other off with what is sure to be a monster speed duel for the ages, Lucky Prayer just might be around to collect a pretty hefty payday at the end of the biggest race in Dubai this weekend. He’s not just all about speed either, as he showed us in the New Yorker. He can go the distance, and that makes Kevoman’s colt seriously dangerous here this weekend.
(5) WILDLY READY (KY) Owner: Bosox Odds: 15/1
(More Than Ready x Fort Whistler (Wild Again x Nureyev))
Career Record: 20 8-4-0 Earnings: $236,205
LSUMARK Racing has a colt in Dubai this weekend who’s got the distinction of being the only colt in the 14-horse field who is neither a graded winner or a graded placed colt. The four year old son of More Than Ready, who’s out of the Wild Again mare, Fort Whistler, has only been in three graded races in his 20 career starts--and only one of those graded starts has been very recent. He ran seventh two starts back in the Grade 3 Khartoum Challenge II on February 16 right here in Dubai. When you look at Wildly Ready’s past performance charts, you’re tempted to draw a line through this guy. You can point to the fact that he isn’t graded placed, that he doesn’t have much graded experience, and that he doesn’t quite have the speed figures lately to fit with this bunch. And, you can throw in the fact that he’s never been ten furlongs in his career. But--and there’s always a but--this colt is one of the few in here who is either not a speedy front ender or a deep closer. He’s more of a lay-just-off-the-lead stalker type, and that could play to his advantage in Dubai this weekend. While the speedsters are burning it up on the front end, and the deep closers are dawdling at the back of the pack waiting to strike, Wildly Ready could find himself somewhere in between those two groups, unfettered by traffic problems. And he is definitely capable of pulling off the upset here in Dubai this weekend. He’s pulled a couple of 112 and 111 speed figures in his career, and if he can improve on that just a little, he might be a very interesting colt to throw a few bucks on in this spot. Stranger things have happened here in Dubai, as we all know. And, let’s not forget this fact about Wildly Ready. The four times he’s been 9.5 furlongs (the longest races of his career), he’s won two of them and finished second twice. If this guy gets the perfect trip, he might be one to keep your eye on here this weekend.
(6) TIME FOR BUDA (ENG) Owner: Juju Odds: 17/1
(Dansili x Tyme Bird (Sadler’s Wells x Secretariat))
Career Record: 17 4-5-2 Earnings: $1,337,080
Laura (Topicount Racing) is one of the triumvirate of owners of Super Stables, and she’s sending Time For Buda here from her own barn to Dubai this weekend. Time For Buda is the only English-bred colt here in the big race in the desert this weekend, and like the Super Stables entry Bluegrass Derby winner Ras El Hanout, Time For Buda started off his career on the turf. But Laura was quick to send this colt to the dirt early in his career. The four year old son of Dansili was doing fairly well on the grass, with a couple of listed stakes top three finishes. But Laura, who’s got a keen eye for speed figures and is not shy at all about switching surfaces to make sure she’s getting the most out of her horses, switched this colt to the dirt four starts into his career. He promptly scored his first listed stakes in his first dirt try, and after that he finished second right here in Dubai last year in the UAE Derby Lock Prep, before he backed that up with a Derby Lock Prep win in the Arkansas Juvenile on April 14. Laura chose to keep her colt out of the Bluegrass Derby, but she did bring him to the Middle Jewel, where he finished well beaten. He’s only won once since that win in Arkansas last season, and that was an allowance win two starts back. Last time out, he was impressive in a second place finish in a ten-furlong listed stakes win, where he threw a 108 speed figure. But if you scour this colt’s past performance charts, it’s easy to see why Laura’s sending him here to Dubai this weekend. Back on September 1 of last season, Time For Buda ran second on a sloppy track in the Grade 2 Winchester Derby in Oklahoma, and with a good surface listed for this weekend, that just might be the key to Time For Buda’s chances here in Dubai this weekend. He does have one other off track start on the dirt, and that was immediately after his run in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic last season. Draw a line through that race. Time For Buda was coming off a 110 speed figure in the BB Classic, and he might have had a bit of bounce in that race in the Grade 3 Mr. Hooper. That’s the key here for Time For Buda. If he can run back to his performance in that Grade 2 Winchester Derby on an off track, Laura just might have herself a Sand Castle Classic winner here this weekend. It certainly wouldn’t be that huge a surprise, if Time For Buda were to pull it off. Laura’s way too sharp to just throw a horse in a race without thinking she has a shot to win it. Keep your eye on Laura and her English-bred colt here. He might just have some fun in the rain in Dubai this weekend, and that could spell huge problems for the rest of this field.
(7) TWIST TWIST (KY) Owner: Wfstables3 Odds: 9/1
(Empire Maker x Atowncalledbedrock (Rock Hard Ten x Forestry))
Career Record: 29 9-8-4 Earnings: $4,790,696
Willyam13 Stables is known for its patience, when it comes to its horses, and it paid off hige dividends in 2011 for Twist Twist, when he scored the first graded win of his career (as a four year old) in the Grade 1 Jockey Guild Gold Cup. Right after that, he upset Too Many Larry in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, and Twist Twist suddenly became the most famous horse in Derbyfever that you never heard of in 2011. The five year old son of Empire Maker has not won since his 2011 Breeders’ Bowl Classic triumph in 2011, but don’t let that fact scare you away from this guy when you’re in the betting queue in Dubai this weekend. Look at his last four starts coming in here to Dubai this weekend. He’s been steadily improving, to say the least, and that means Willyam probably thinks he’s got a good shot at scoring his first win here in Dubai after an eighth place finish here last year. Four starts back, he finished second in a listed stakes, before he scored a second place finish in the 2012 Jockey Guild Gold Cup. Right after that, he finished third in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic behind eventual winner Too Many Larry, who he’s developed quite a rivalry with. He led most of the way in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, and, despite finishing third, he threw a 116 speed figure there. After that, Twist Twist took a very long winter break, and he opened up his 2013 campaign with a third place finish in the Grade 3 Heaven Stakes on March 2, 29 days ago. He threw a 113 speed figure there, and that’s significant for Twist Twist, after taking off nearly four months. Here’s another thing you might want to watch for when you’re looking at Twist Twist’s past performance charts. He’s had a couple of starts on off tracks, and one of them came back in the summer of 2011 in a second place finish in the Movieland Shiny Cup. He threw a 111 speed figure there, and he didn’t let the off track bother his early speed, which he happens to be blessed with. He just might like this off surface here in the Sand Castle Classic this weekend in Dubai, if that race is any indication. In any case, Twist Twist should give the other speed burners here a run for their money early. Look for him to be on the front end, and look for Willyam’s colt to perhaps steal this race on the front end. He’s certainly capable of that, and with the recent sudden upturn in speed figures, he could just possibly break his long drought of not appearing in the winner’s circle. Willyam wouldn’t have him here, if he didn’t’ think he had a good chance to win, that’s for sure. This trainer has been doing this too long to not know when his horse is sitting on a big race, and you can bet he had his eye on the weather forecast when he entered this horse. With him splashing all those clogs of dirt on the horses trying to keep up with him, this might just be Twist Twist’s year to score his first big win on the desert’s biggest stage here this weekend.
(8) TOO MANY LARRY (KY) Owner: Laz3man Odds: 7/1
(Unbridled’s Song x Alydar x Seattle Slew)
Career Record: 39 10-9-9 Earnings: $10,232,462
For two years, Too Many Larry was knocking on the Breeders’ Bowl Classic door. But in 2010 and 2011, he came up third in the big dance twice. Finally, in 2012, the seven-year old scratch-bred son of Unbridled’s Song came up big on the biggest stage of all in California, taking down his first Breeders’ Bowl Classic win in three tries. It was long overdue for the colt who’s won or finished top three in 28 of his 39 career starts. That’s a pretty amazing stat that shows consistency for a colt who’s been running in the big races for the majority of his career. Laz3man captured lighting in a bottle with his scratch-bred colt, but it’s definitely not flash lightning. After 39 starts, this colt is still going strong, and, lest we forget, he’s the defending champion of the Sand Castle Classic coming in here this weekend. He won this race last year in a romp, scoring a 2 ¾ length win over Mr. Fixit, against a field that had no less than 11 Grade 1 winners in the field of 14. Three starts back in that Breeders’ Bowl Classic win, he popped a 118 speed figure, and he comes in here off a listed stakes win in Hong Kong, where he scored a 113 speed figure. Too Many Larry looks primed to take down his second consecutive Sand Castle Classic win here this weekend in Dubai. It would be his sixth Grade 1 win in 39 starts, if he were to win this weekend, and the winner’s share of the purse would push his earnings to nearly 14 million dollars. Not too shabby. His record is the stuff of Hall Of Fame dreams, and if he can do this year what he did last year (pull off a Dubai win and a BB Classic win), he’s almost a shoo-in for at least an Eclipse Trophy and a Hall Of Fame slot. Does the old boy still have it in him? At seven years old, he doesn’t appear to have lost a step, and he just might be ready here this weekend to show he still belongs on the big stage. That is where he does his best running, after all. Plus, Too Many Larry might just have something to prove here, after he knocked down the Sand Castle Classic and then the Breeders’ Bowl Classic in the same year, yet failed to win the Eclipse Award. If anyone’s got a case for revenge as a motivation, it’s Too Many Larry. And, he could just show the Eclipse voters this weekend exactly how wrong they were last year when they didn’t give him that Eclipse Award.
(9) SETTLE FOR SATIN (KY) Owner: Chicks Odds: 10/1
(A.P. Indy x Goodrich Castle (Giant’s Causeway x Mr. Prospector))
Career Record: 15 11-1-2 Earnings: $707,001
Settle For Satin has won 11 of his 15 career races for his owner, Supertaffy Stables, and he comes in here having won seven of his last eight starts. Talk about some pretty regal breeding here. This is a five year old son of A.P. Indy, out of the Giant’s Causeway mare, Goodrich Castle. And, if that’s not enough to wow you, his back end is Mr. Prospector. This colt has so much going for him, Supertaffy must be licking her chops here in this spot with this colt. A five year old son of A.P. Indy, with only 15 career starts, and 14 of those were top three finishes? Oh yeah, you bet Supertaffy is thinking right about now that she’s sitting on a hot one who’s got a lot of very hot, very big races ahead of him. The future is unlimited for this colt, and that superstar future could start right here in Dubai this weekend. This colt is extremely lightly raced, not having started his career until he was a late three year old. If anyone’s got fresh feet coming into Dubai this weekend, it’s Supertaffy’s colt, Settle For Satin. And that could play to his advantage in a huge way. If ever a colt came in here to the desert for the richest race on the richest day of racing in Dubai with a legit shot at a superstar career, it’s Settle For Satin. He’s one of three hroses in this field who has not won a grade 1 race, but when you have a colt who’s bred like this, that doesn’t make much difference. He’s got so much natural talent and so much blue blood that the lack of grade 1 experience shouldn’t be a factor at all for Settle For Satin. In three of his last four starts, Settle For Satin has speed figures of 112, 113, and 114, and that’s definitely good enough to run with this field. Supertaffy’s been nursing this guy along very carefully, and now she’s ready to make her big strike with this colt here in Dubai this weekend. Also, let’s not forget that this colt has two grade 2 wins in his last four tries. In three of his last four wins, he’s won at ten furlongs really easily, so he’s got that going for him too. He can go this distance, that’s for sure. This guy also has a lot of early speed, and when you combine that with the fact that he’s running those monster speed figures basically geared down at the end of his recent races, well, it’s going to be interesting to see what he does against a field of this caliber. If ever there was a horse who looked like he was sitting on a huge race, it’s Settle For Satin. Watch this guy in the desert. He should control the pace early, and this spot should be no problem for him. He could kick off an Eclipse Award campaign with a win here, because this colt has a ton of upside in his future. Supertaffy’s got a beast coming in here to the desert. Look for this one to come up big this weekend--if the slightly off track doesn’t bother him. Like we said, he doesn’t have any off track experience, and he hasn’t run with a field this deep with talent before. But we don’t think that’ll make much difference for Supertaffy’s monster here this weekend.
(10) DEEP NAVIGATOR (KY) Owner: Stickpin10 Odds: 10/1
(Henrythenavigator x Disparate Impacts (Deep Impact x Gone West))
Career Record: 19 6-3-2 Earnings: $919,979
Deep Navigator, like Ras El Hanout, started off his career on the turf. But the four year old son of Henrythenavigator really didn’t catch fire until about the time of last year’s Bluegrass Derby. A week before that race, he threw the first 100 speed figure of his career, but you could probably see he was going to be a late developer who might be a major player in some of the late-season three year old races. Stickpin10’s colt did not disappoint, either, when he was shipped up to Canada and scored his first two grade 1 victories of his career in the Labatt’s Ontario Oaks and the Clerk Of Scales Stakes. He still hadn’t answered the 10-furlong question after a decent finish in the Grade 1 Travelers’ Stakes and the Grade 1 Breeders’ Bowl Classic, however. So Stickpin10 sent him back to 9-furlong races his last three times out, and he was extremely impressive, piling up 116, 115 and 112 speed figures in his last three starts. He missed by just a length, finishing second in the Grade 3 Apple Pie in California, won the Grade 3 Mr. Hooper in Florida and finished third in the Grade 1 Glenn Handicap last time out (a common race for quite a few of these). He came on strongly late in that race, and that might be an indication that this colt is ready to take down his first ten-furlong graded score here in Dubai this weekend. This colt is coming into his own at just the right time here, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him do well here in Dubai this weekend in the $6,000,000 Sand Castle Classic.
(11) SKITZOID (KY) Owner: Muninn Odds: 8/1
(Awesome Again x A.P. Indy x Storm Cat)
Career Record: 17 7-2-1 Earnings: $2,543,044
When Skitzoid rolled up from dead last halfway thru last year’s Bluegrass Derby to close gamely for second place behind Ras El Hanout, you knew you were seeing something special then. This was a horse that was going to be big on the scene for a while. When he followed that up with late-closing third-place and second-place finishes in both the Grade 1 New Yorker and the Equinics, you had to wonder if Skitzoid was ever going to find a big race long enough to win. His late-closing running style seemed to indicate that he wanted much more distance. Then something changed after the Equinics. He scored huge, back-to-back victories in both the Travelers’ Stakes and the Jockey Guild Gold Cup in New York (the latter against older horses for the first time). And he proved he could win convincingly at 10 furlongs for the first times in his career. He was closing late, too, when he came from 16 lengths off the pace in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, where he finished fifth, beaten only four lengths. After that, Skitzoid took a break over the winter, and he returned in his 2013 debut to score a head victory in the Grade 2 Khartoum Challenge II here in Dubai. That was a 9-furlong race after a three-month break, so if you think Skitzoid isn’t ready for the Sand Castle Classic, think again. The four year old scratch-bred son of Awesome Again is really coming into his own, especially after he threw a career-high 117 speed figure in that Grade 3 Khartoum Challenge, a race that probably should have been too short for him. It turns out it was the perfect warm-up race for Skitzoid. He’s ranked #2 in his division, he’s throwing major league speed figures on a consistent basis, and he’s going to be a major player here. Watch out for Muninn and his colt here. This is a monster colt who looks like he’s ready to throw a monster effort here in Dubai.
(12) CHINOOK DOWN (IRE) Owner: Liam Odds: 8/1
(Rock Of Gibraltar x Red Dulhert (Deputy Minister x Storm Cat))
Career: 27 8-7-3 Earnings: $3,055,566
Chinook Down is a six-year-old son of Rock Of Gibraltar and one of the few Irish-breds in this race. He’s pretty lightly raced for a six-year old, with only 27 career starts. But in this 27 career starts, he’s got over $3 million in purse money, and he’s finished first or second in 15 of those 27 starts, which means this guy is pretty darned consistent. He only had run in three graded races before February of last season, which means he must have had a hell of a season in 2012 to accumlate all those earnigns. And he did. Between February of last year and February of 2013, he has run in no less than seven Grade 1 races. Talk about your late developer. Liam has done a terrific job with this colt. Chinook Down really didn’t start his career until the very end of his two year old season. And he only raced once as a two year old. Last year, he finished second in the Grade 1 Glenn Handicap, a typical lead-in for the Sand Castle Classic, and by the time he got to Dubai, he was a 10-1 shot that not too many people had heard of. He pulled one of the best races of his career here in Dubai last year, when he ran third behind Too Many Larry and Mr. Fixit, who ran monster races in the 2012 version of this race. By June of last season, he was five years old, and he still didn’t have a grade 1 win. That changed very quickly, when Liam got his colt back-to-back scores in the Grade 1 Movieland Shiny Cup and the Grade 1 CA Classic. What was so surprising about that Grade 1 CA Classic win was that he scored a 118 speed figure after a two-month-layoff. He comes in here off three consecutive off-the-board finishes in the BB Classic, the Japan Dirt Cup and Toilet Scrubber’s Anonymous Handicap--all big Grade 1 events. He was gaining ground late in all three of those starts, and he gets back to the 10-furlong distance for the first time since the Breeders’ Bowl last year. That might be just what Chinook Down needs here. Some colts just love specific distances, and this guy might just be one of them. He’s shown he can run with--and beat--the caliber of competition he’ll be facing here in Dubai this weekend. Now, all that remains to be seen is whether or not he can recapture the mid-summer magic got him the only two grade 1 wins of his career last season. He’s been on a grueling schedule, that much is certain. But if he can get back to the way he ran in California during the summer, this six year old son of Rock Of Gibraltar could be very dangerous in this spot.
(13) MAIN RUNNER (GER) Owner: Joe333 Odds: 11/1
(Monsun x Euro Runner (Cape Canaveral x Danzig))
Career Record: 17 4-6-3 Earnings: $357,120
Main Runner is a pretty lightly raced four year old son of Monson who comes in here with only 17 career starts. He’s only got five graded starts in his career, but he’s coming in here off his lone graded win, a huge score in the 9.5 furlong Grade 1 Toilet Scrubbers’ Anonymous Handicap. That race is big for him, because he threw the biggest speed figure of his career there (116). He won drawing off late in that start, and he beat a few of these he’ll be facing here this weekend in Dubai. So don’t write this guy off, just because you may never have heard of him. Joe333 has bred a pretty interesting colt here. He’s a son of Monsun, out of the Cape Canaveral mare Euro Runner. That back end of this colt contains the classic Mr. Prospector x Danzig cross. But more importantly, with Monsun as his sire, he might just be one of the few in here who can handle what are expected to be less than stellar weather conditions. He’s never run on an off-track in his career, but sons of Monsun have been known to handle less than ideal racing conditions, and that could be important in Dubai this weekend, given the fact that the weather guys are expecting a 75 percent chance of rain. This guy has only been ten furlongs a few times in his career, and he’s shown quite a bit of speed in those starts. He’s got a little three year old half brother who’s ranked #1 in the three year old sprint division, so it’s little surprise that older brother is pretty quick early himself--a fact that could play to his advantage in Dubai this weekend. In a race that doesn’t look like it will have a whole lot of early speed, you could find Main Runner on the front end early here this weekend.
(14) SPLIT SECOND (KY) Owner: Phillysun2 Odds: 13/1
(Medaglia D’Oro x Mr. Prospector x Buckpasser)
Career Record: 13 7-3-1 Earnings: $2,278,790
Psyduck is sending a pretty big monster of his own here to Dubai this weekend for a shot at the $6 million prize. There are a lot of similarities in Settle For Satin (Supertaffy’s beast) and Psyduck’s Split Second. Like Settle For Satin, Split Second is regally bred, he’s five years old, and he’s also extremely lightly raced. He’s got only 13 career starts, and he’s won 7 of them. He’s finished in the money in four other starts, making him top three in 11 of his 13 career starts. He’s also shown the propensity to throw some pretty big speed balls in his races, too. And, that’s where the similarities stop between the two horses in this field in Dubai‘s Sand Castle Classic. Psyduck’s five year old scratch-bred son of Medaglia D’Oro has seen quite a bit of graded experience compared to Settle The Satin, and all of it has come as recently as the latter half of 2012. He’s run in graded company in all six of his last six starts, and he’s won three of those starts. And if that’s not enough to impress you, during that stretch he finished second behind Too Many Larry in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic in 2012. This horse was an absolute beast who came out of nowhere towards the tail end of last season, when he kicked off his graded campaign with an easy win in the Grade 3 Peach State Classic. After that, Psyduck saw what a talent he had, and he pitched him right into the Equinics, when he entered him in the 12-furlong Belmont Park Stakes, where he simply ran off and hid from the rest of the field, scoring an easy 3+ lengths win there. He threw what was then the second highest speed figure of his career his next time out, when he won the $500,000 9.5-furlong, Grade 1 (Are you ready for this?) Now Faith Is The Substance Of Things Hoped For The Evidence Of Things Not Seen Stakes. Phew! Long name for a stakes race, but not to worry. Split Second scored easily there too, coming from off the pace, as he is prone to do, beating a pretty nice field in Arizona. He threw a 115 speed figure in that race, and he turned right around his next start in that second-place finish to Too Many Larry in the BB Classic, where all he did was throw a 116 speed figure. He’s come back down to earth a bit in the speed figure department in his next two starts in the Grade 1 Japan Dirt Cup and the Grade 1 Glenn Handicap. He just had a couple of bounce races, after those huge efforts he put in late last season. That probably won’t bother him here, if he runs back to the form we know he showed us last season. That’s the big question for Split Second. Can he bounce back from what was a grueling end to the 2012 season? If he can, there’s no doubt he’s got the talent, the breeding, and that all-elusive superstar quality that could make him figure prominently in this race. This guy is a monster waiting to happen for Psyduck, for quite a long time into the future,too. You can bet you’re going to be hearing big things from this horse not only now, but for a long time into the future.
In horse racing, things don’t always work out the way you think they will.
And, sometimes, they work out even better than you think they will.
When Supertaffy Racing Stables entered Pretty Fly in the Grade 1 $6,000,000 Sand Castle Classic in Dubai this past weekend, she knew she had a very nice horse who was quick early and who had a real shot at taking down the biggest of the big races in the Dubai desert this weekend.
Even the odds makers thought as much, making Pretty Fly the 5/1 morning line favorite when the raced closed for entries Wednesday.
But Taffy had another horse she inserted in Saturday’s Sand Castle Classic, Settle For Satin, who was untried in grade 1 company. Taffy knew she had a really nice horse in Settle For Satin. But, just before the entries closed on Wednesday, she almost scratched Settle For Satin, fearing her two speedy horses would duel on the lead and kill each other off.
Today, Taffy is really glad she didn’t scratch Settle For Satin this past weekend.
Her lightly raced five year old son of A.P. Indy did indeed duel for the early lead with his stable mate, 5-1 morning line favorite Pretty Fly, before he put his stable mate away in the Dubai rain and staved off a late rally by a hard-charging Skitzoid to take down the Sand Castle Classic--his first grade 1 victory--and possibly launch his own Eclipse Award campaign in 2013.
"I was pretty surprised," said Taffy. "I had the confidence he was a top quality horse, but I was very worried coming in to the race. He was only rated 13th in the field and one of the few non-grade 1 winners, so I almost scratched him. I also had Pretty Fly in that race, so I was worried about the two of them dueling it out on the lead. But I kept him in because I knew he could get ten furlongs. And I thought, given the off track, the A.P. Indy breeding would lend itself to an off track better."
Taffy was right. Settle In Satin did get the ten furlongs, and she was also right about her two colts dueling on the lead early. Pretty Fly went right to the front from the rail, where he was quickly joined by stable mate Settle For Satin. The pair dueled through the first five furlongs, setting some fairly fast fractions.
But it turned out Taffy was right about her strong A.P. Indy horse handling the off track better in the Dubai rain.
He looked like a freight train roaring down the stretch en route to his 1 ½ length victory over Skitzoid, and Settle For Satin ran a career high 116 speed figure while doing it.
"When the race started and Settle For Satinhe jumped right out and took the lead, I just thought, ‘Okay, he brought his game face. Let’s see if he can handle the closers.’ About the time Pretty Fly faded, I was sure he had it. He (Settle for Satin) doesn't need a big lead, but at that point he would rather die then let another horse catch him."
Taffy knows her 2013 Sand Castle Classic winner well, apparently. He didn’t die, and he also didn’t let another horse catch him on Saturday, despite the late-race heroics from multiple grade 1 winner Skitzoid, who finished second in the Equinics last season before taking down back-to-back scores in the Grade 1 Travelers’ Stakes and the Grade 1 Jockey Guild Gold Cup.
"It was a great first grade 1 victory for him," said Taffy. "He will be getting around seven weeks off, then a nice, easy race. And then, hopefully, he will show up state-side side for some of the ten-furlong grade 1’s and see how he fares."
If Saturday’s performance is any indication of things to come for Taffy’s last A.P. Indy-sired horse, this guy could be a beast in 2013--a beast who suddenly found himself on this year’s Eclipse Award radar after Saturday’s big win in Dubai.
"I have big dreams for him. I bred his mom specifically to be a mom," said Taffy, who deliberately bred his dam to be a female through the game‘s option to determine the sex of its horses before they’re foaled. Goodrich Castle, Settle In Satin’s dam, was stakes-placed in her career, and Taffy thought the Giants Causeway X Mr. Prospector dam might be a great line to work with.
She was right.
Taffy had such high hopes for her 2013 Sand Castle Classic winner when he was foaled that she wanted him to have a special name. "I wanted him to have a rock star name, so he is named after an alkaline trio band album," said Taffy. "He is my first good A.P. Indy runner and sadly will be my last."
Settle For Satin cut through the Dubai rain and ran the ten furlongs in a pretty quick time of 2:00.03, despite running on a slightly off track which was rated as good this weekend for the big race in the desert.
He almost broke the magical two-minute mark for the ten furlongs against a field that included no less than 11 grade 1 winners. This was no second-rate field that Taffy’s colt beat this weekend in Dubai. And, with only 16 starts under his belt, it appears this horse just might be the guy to reckon with in 2013.
Skitzoid, who also finished third in the third leg of the Triple Crown in 2012, roared from dead last through much of Saturday’s race to get up for second. Main Runner, who hung tough with the two early pacesetters from Taffy’s stable, held on to be a game third after stalking the leaders from fifth place through much of Saturday’s race. The German-bred runner who is a son of Monsun was only ½ a length behind Skitzoid
Settle For Satin paid $23.50, $11.70 and $6.70 across the board to those who had faith in him this weekend. And, the 9-11 exacta with Skitzoid paid $250.90. Main Runner completed the 9-11-13 trifecta, an exotic which paid a whopping $3,245.50.
Preview Grade One 5-Series by spinround on Friday, April 12, 2013 at 9:55:04 PM
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post Time 3:00:00 OGT Sunday April 14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Preview Grade One 5-Series
Post Time 3:00:00 OGT Sunday April 14
Fourteen international runners converge on Victoria for thisweek’s Grade One 5-Series Stakes at a mile and one half. Run over a firm turf course for a $2,000,000purse, the 5-Series has attracted last season’s Breeders’ Bowl Turf and ThreeYear Old Turf Eclipse Champion Dynamic Force but the imposing son of Montjeu isnot the favorite. That roll goes toCross Check who enters on a hot streak. Also in the field is last year’s winner Scabby Crabby and twoaccomplished fillies taking on the boys. Let’s take a closer look.
#1 Cross Check is a five year old son of Cape Cross. The race favorite enters on a five race winstreak which include three listed races. He earned a career best 118 speed in his last start. Cross Check has run in one graded race beforethis start, and that was as a three year old. He has a lot of speed and should be setting or prompting the pace.
#2 Dynamic Force is a four year old son of Montjeu who setthe turf world on fire last November when he dominated older horses in the Breeders’Bowl Turf winning by four lengths with an eye-popping 120 speed. Given some time off after the Breeders’ Bowl,Dynamic Force returned to the races in January with a facile allowancevictory. The lightly-raced colt met hisfirst off track in his most recent start and did not care for the surface atall, running perhaps the worst race of his career when fourth. That said he’ll get a firm track in this spotand the only other time he finished off the board was the race immediatelypreceding his Breeders’ Bowl win.
#3 The Eliminator is a five year old son of Pivotal whofinished tenth in this race last year. The colt did score two graded wins, including a grade one following thatstart and had his best season so far. The Eliminator was given some time off at the end of the year andfreshened for a 2013 campaign. Hestarted this year in a six furlong allowance where he ran a creditable sixthwith a 101 speed considering his preference is for double that distance. He followed that with a two length loss in alisted stakes at a mile and five sixteenths.
#4 K’ Fiscal Cliff is a four year old son of Dynaformer andthe lightest raced horse in the field. From seven starts he has recorded five wins and two seconds but he’snever tried stakes company – let alone graded – in that time. His speeds are solid with a career best of106 but compared to the more experienced runners they are on the low side. That said he has won his last two starts byopen lengths and there may be more in the tank.
#5 Mylifedependsonit is a four year old daughter of Encostade Lago. The winner of last season’sJapanese Oaks has faced males on two recent occasions, finishing eighth in theJapanese Saint Legend and fourth in the King Kong Cup in December. She had almost three months off after theKing Kong Cup and she returned to the races in March winning an allowance at amile and three sixteenths. Her careerbest speed is a 117 which she earned winning a grade two at a mile and onequarter.
#6 He is Calling Us is the second Dynaformer in the field, afive year old. He’s never won a gradedstakes before but he hit the board in three last season, including a second in theGrade One Champion. That day he finishedahead of Dynamic Force and 2012 Horse of the Year Cryin Out Loud. He ran a career best 112 speed that day andseems to do his best running at a mile and one quarter or a mile and threeeighths. At a mile and one half his bestspeed is only a 104.
#7 Big Bad Simster is a four year old son of Big Brown. He’s only got three wins from thirteen startsbut he may be maturing at the right time. His speeds have increased steadily over his last three starts, goingfrom 105 to 108 to 112 in his most recent start. Those races all came at distances shorterthan this spot with the 112 coming in a mile and three sixteenths race. He is stakes-placed in his last two runs buthe’s never tried a graded stakes before.
#8 Stormhill Dancer is a five year old son of DanehillDancer who was once available for a claim tag of $150,000. Luckily for trainer mrbigb the colt stayed inhis barn as Stormhill Dancer would go on to score a grade one victory in2012. Stormhill Dancer’s two 2013 startscame at distances longer than his best. He did win an allowance at a mile and three quarters but then ran poorlywhen stretching out to two miles in the Grade One Ackland Cup. A return to his preferred distance puts himin a good position.
#9 Fantastic Drift is a seven year old son of FantasticLight who only has twelve starts to his name. Over the last five months Fantastic Drift ran in four graded stakes atdistances from one mile to a mile and one half, without hitting the board inany of them. In his last start hedropped back to an allowance at a mile and three eighths and won easily.
#10 Rizla Green is a four year old son of Montjeu, and theonly horse in the field to win over five million dollars. He looked unbeatable as an early three yearold, winning four graded stakes (three grade ones) from February throughJuly. After his third consecutive gradeone he ran a dull race in which he was distanced and presumably injured. He returned in the fall to win another gradeone but has been off the board in two of his three starts since. He did run a very solid race two starts backin the Grade Three Gary Trent in which he was second with a 112 speed.
#11 Scabby Crabby is a five year old son of High Chaparral and the winner ofthis race last year. He entered lastyear’s race with two wins and a third in his previous starts and then dominatedthe competition with a 118 speed. Hewouldn’t find the winner’s circle again until December of last year when he wonan allowance at two miles. This year hehas run three times and finished third twice.
#12 Crackle is a six year old son of Curlin and the onlyhorse in today’s field to have changed hands during his career. Crackle won a grade three as a three year oldand had been a productive older runner for breeder slipaway, winning fourteenstarts and hitting the board in another ten. Last September he was sold at auction to new trainer pacer who has racedhim exclusively in stakes races since then with poor results. He’s run from six furlongs to a mile and onequarter in listeds, grade threes and a grade two without hitting the board inany of those races. Perhaps a return tolonger distances will aid him but it’s a stretch to foresee a victory in thisrace for Crackle.
#13 External Noise is a four year old daughter of Lemon DropKid who is lightly raced but coming into this race with a head of steam. She has been first or second in thirteen ofsixteen starts and has won five listed stakes at distances from a mile and fivesixteenths to a mile and one half. Shemade her first start in graded company and her first start against males in hermost recent race, the Grade Two Buck Dharma Handicap. After breaking in mid pack and trailing earlyExternal Noise made a bold charge towards the front, falling just a neck shortto King to Groom, a colt who had already notched a grade three victory. The filly ran a career best 113 speed thatday and she seems to be primed for a big race. Trainer joe999 is supremely confident in this horse and thinks she willbe a star of 2013.
#14 Apex Fallacy is a five year old son of Montjeu. Last season he won the Grade Two Dutchland ata mile and one half with a 110 speed. Hewas off the board in two grade one starts before winning a very tough residencyrestricted stakes with a career best 114 speed in December. This year he has a win and a second in twolisted appearances and he may be sitting on a big race. Even though he is a five year old, ApexFallacy only has twelve starts to his credit and certainly has room forimprovement.